Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
3 live outcomes · highest priced: 3 at <1% · first close Mar 2, 2027 · $3.8M total volume
About this event
This event tracks the numerical ranking of 2026 among the hottest years on record based on NASA global temperature data. Markets measure specific ranking outcomes for 2026, such as being the hottest or second-hottest year.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of distinct rank outcomes. Because 2026 will occupy a specific rank (or share a rank in the case of a tie), the markets correspond to mutually exclusive rank positions, meaning only the market matching the final rank of 2026 will resolve Yes unless a tie affects multiple places according to the rules.
How it resolves
Each market resolves based on the numerical rank of 2026 compared to all other years in the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, ranked in descending order (1 being the hottest). A market resolves Yes if 2026 achieves the specified rank, and No otherwise. If 2026 ties with another year, it resolves according to the place the tied year occupies. Resolution occurs immediately once data becomes available, regardless of later revisions. If NASA provides no data by the deadline, resolution uses a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Data availability deadline: — March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, after which consensus of credible reporting will be used if NASA data is unavailable.
Resolution source
NASA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GISTEMP)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | <1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 4 | <1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 5 | <1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 1 | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| 2 | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| 6 or lower | — | — | Low | Med |