Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
Current price
0.2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.2%
$554.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market provides unambiguous resolution criteria based on an exact URL, table, column, and row published by NASA GISS. The ranking methodology is explicitly defined, and the rules state that resolution occurs immediately upon initial data publication without waiting for subsequent revisions. A fallback to consensus reporting exists only if the official source fails to publish 2026 data by March 1, 2027. The tie-handling rule is noted, though typical climate data records provide distinct decimal values.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the year 2026 ranks specifically as the fourth-hottest year on record in global temperature records.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if 2026 ranks as the fourth-hottest year on record when comparing all recorded years in descending order of temperature. If 2026 ties with another year, it resolves according to the place the tied year occupies. The market resolves to No if 2026 finishes at any other numerical rank. Resolution occurs immediately upon data publication and will not change if figures are later revised. The primary resolution source is the table titled Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C) under the No_Smoothing column from NASA. If that index is permanently unavailable, other NASA data may be used. If NASA provides no data for 2026 by the March 1, 2027 deadline, a consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Key dates
- NASA Data Fallback Deadline: — If NASA provides no 2026 data by this time, resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
NASA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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