Will there be exactly 1 government shutdown by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear, objective operational criteria for what counts as a distinct federal government shutdown, specifically citing official OMB execution directives and OPM operating status notices.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear, objective operational criteria for what counts as a distinct federal government shutdown, specifically citing official OMB execution directives and OPM operating status notices. The rules explicitly clarify that partial shutdowns qualify, technical lapses where agencies maintain normal operations do not, and concurrent lapses do not count as separate events. The resolution source relies primarily on official government notifications from OPM and OMB, though a consensus of credible reporting is permitted as a backup. Note that the question asks if there will be exactly 1 shutdown, while the rules mention resolving to '0' if none occur, which points to this being a bracketed or multi-outcome question where this specific contract checks for a count of exactly one.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
37%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct United States federal government shutdowns due to a lapse in appropriations that go into effect between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees. A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown. Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown. The following will qualify as a shutdown: - An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that goes into effect within this market's timeframe - An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency") The following will not qualify as a shutdown: - A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations - Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations Each qualifying shutdown counts once, regardless of its duration or the number of agencies affected. A shutdown ends when funding authority is restored for all affected agencies. A lapse in appropriations that begins while another qualifying shutdown is still in effect will not count as a separate shutdown. If no qualifying shutdown goes into effect within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "0". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether exactly one distinct United States federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations takes effect by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if exactly one qualifying distinct U.S. federal government shutdown goes into effect between market creation and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying shutdown occurs when a lapse in appropriations leads federal agencies to suspend non-excepted operations, evidenced by an OMB directive to execute shutdown plans or an OPM status indicating operations are suspended or reduced. Partial shutdowns qualify, but technical lapses without suspended operations and closures solely from holidays or weather do not. Consecutive lapses during an active shutdown do not count as separate events. The market resolves to No if the total count of qualifying shutdowns is not exactly one. If no shutdown occurs, it resolves to 0. The deciding source is official U.S. government information, including OPM, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM), or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·