Will there be no government shutdown by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide detailed and explicit criteria for what constitutes a qualifying federal government shutdown, specifying that an actual suspension of non-excepted operations or furloughs must occur, rather than a purely technical lapse in funding where normal operations continue.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide detailed and explicit criteria for what constitutes a qualifying federal government shutdown, specifying that an actual suspension of non-excepted operations or furloughs must occur, rather than a purely technical lapse in funding where normal operations continue. Specific qualifying triggers are identified, such as official directives from OMB or status notices from OPM. The timeline is clearly bounded to December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. While the rules allow a consensus of credible reporting to supplement official government sources, the objective triggers (OMB shutdown orders and OPM operating statuses) provide clear guardrails that leave little room for arbitrary interpretation.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
20%
chance▼ −1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct United States federal government shutdowns due to a lapse in appropriations that go into effect between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees. A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown. Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown. The following will qualify as a shutdown: - An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that goes into effect within this market's timeframe - An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency") The following will not qualify as a shutdown: - A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations - Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations Each qualifying shutdown counts once, regardless of its duration or the number of agencies affected. A shutdown ends when funding authority is restored for all affected agencies. A lapse in appropriations that begins while another qualifying shutdown is still in effect will not count as a separate shutdown. If no qualifying shutdown goes into effect within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "0". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether zero distinct United States federal government shutdowns occur due to a lapse in appropriations before December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
How it resolves
The market resolves to "0" if no qualifying federal government shutdown goes into effect within the timeframe. Otherwise, it resolves to the number of distinct shutdowns. A qualifying shutdown occurs when a lapse in appropriations causes agencies to suspend non-excepted operations, evidenced by an OMB shutdown directive or an OPM operating status notice indicating operations are suspended, reduced, or varying. Partial shutdowns qualify. Closures solely due to holidays or weather, or technical funding lapses where normal operations continue, do not qualify. Each shutdown counts once regardless of duration, and overlapping lapses do not count as separate shutdowns. Official U.S. government information, including OPM, decides resolution, with a consensus of credible reporting also usable.
Resolution source
Official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM), or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·