How many government shutdowns by December 31, 2027?
3 live outcomes · highest priced: 1 at 37% · first close Jan 1, 2028 · $21.7K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the total count of distinct United States federal government shutdowns caused by a lapse in appropriations occurring between market creation and December 31, 2027.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as mutually exclusive count outcomes representing the total number of distinct qualifying shutdowns. Because the event measures a single final count, at most one outcome can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if the final number of distinct U.S. federal government shutdowns matches its designated count, and No otherwise. A shutdown qualifies if a funding lapse leads agencies to suspend non-excepted operations, evidenced by an OMB directive to execute shutdown plans or an OPM operating status indicating operations are suspended or reduced. Partial shutdowns qualify. Closures solely for weather, holidays, or emergencies without a funding lapse do not count. Each shutdown counts once until funding is restored across all affected agencies. Resolution relies on official U.S. government information or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Evaluation End Date: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM), or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 2 | 32% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 0 | 20% | ▼ 1 | Low | Med | |
| 3+ | — | — | Not rated | — |