Will US gas hit $4.40 (High) in November?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the target metric, threshold, and resolution window (November 1 through November 30, 2026).
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the target metric, threshold, and resolution window (November 1 through November 30, 2026). Resolution relies entirely on a single designated URL from the American Automobile Association (AAA), pinpointing the exact table, column, and row to check. Precise fallback instructions cover potential website update delays, observation timestamps, and the handling of unrounded four-decimal figures, leaving minimal room for decider discretion or ambiguous interpretations.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA is equal to or above the specified price for any date from November 1, 2026 through November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market resolves based on the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ in the "National Average Gas Prices" table under the "Regular" column and the "Current Avg." row. Each date's price is the price displayed at 10:00 AM ET on that date, provided that at that time the "Price as of" date shown on the webpage is that date and the "Yesterday Avg." row in the same column shows the previous date's price. If either condition is not met at 10:00 AM ET, the price will be observed at the first time on that date at which both are met; if both are not met by 11:59 PM ET on that date, the price displayed in the table at that time will be used. If AAA does not display the US national average price of regular gasoline in the table at the time of observation, the price displayed elsewhere on the webpage will be used. If AAA displays no US national average price of regular gasoline on the specified webpage at any time on one or more dates within the specified month, this market will resolve based on the prices observed for the remaining dates. The resolution source for this market will be the American Automobile Association (AAA) (https://gasprices.aaa.com/). Note: AAA currently publishes gas prices to four decimal places (e.g., $4.3718). The price will be used as published, without rounding.
Market explained
This market measures whether the US national average price of regular gasoline reaches or exceeds $4.40 at any point during November 2026. Resolution relies on exact unrounded figures published by AAA.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US national average regular gasoline price published by AAA is equal to or above $4.40 for any date from November 1, 2026, through November 30, 2026, evaluated without rounding. The market resolves to No if the price remains strictly below $4.40 on all observed dates in that period. The American Automobile Association (AAA) decides through data on its gas prices website. Each day's value is taken from the Regular Current Avg. field observed at 10:00 AM ET if date validation conditions are met, or at the first valid time, defaulting to 11:59 PM ET if unvalidated. If dates are missing, resolution relies on remaining dates.
Resolution source
American Automobile Association (AAA)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·