Will US gas hit $4.45 (High) in November?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify a single, authoritative data source (AAA's national average gas prices website) and identify the precise table, column, and row to observe.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify a single, authoritative data source (AAA's national average gas prices website) and identify the precise table, column, and row to observe. Observation timing is strictly defined at 10:00 AM ET with clear timestamp verification conditions, standardized fallbacks for later in the day, and handling for missing data. It also explicitly clarifies that numbers are taken directly as published to four decimal places without rounding. The year 2026 is specifically defined in the text, leaving minimal room for unexpected resolution outcomes.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA is equal to or above the specified price for any date from November 1, 2026 through November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market resolves based on the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ in the "National Average Gas Prices" table under the "Regular" column and the "Current Avg." row. Each date's price is the price displayed at 10:00 AM ET on that date, provided that at that time the "Price as of" date shown on the webpage is that date and the "Yesterday Avg." row in the same column shows the previous date's price. If either condition is not met at 10:00 AM ET, the price will be observed at the first time on that date at which both are met; if both are not met by 11:59 PM ET on that date, the price displayed in the table at that time will be used. If AAA does not display the US national average price of regular gasoline in the table at the time of observation, the price displayed elsewhere on the webpage will be used. If AAA displays no US national average price of regular gasoline on the specified webpage at any time on one or more dates within the specified month, this market will resolve based on the prices observed for the remaining dates. The resolution source for this market will be the American Automobile Association (AAA) (https://gasprices.aaa.com/). Note: AAA currently publishes gas prices to four decimal places (e.g., $4.3718). The price will be used as published, without rounding.
Market explained
This market measures whether the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA reaches or exceeds $4.45 at any point during November 2026, evaluated using exact published values without rounding.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA is equal to or above $4.45 for any date from November 1, 2026, through November 30, 2026. Prices are taken as published without rounding. The market resolves to No if the price remains below $4.45 across all observed dates in that period. Daily prices are checked at 10:00 AM ET on AAA's site under specific timestamp validation rules, with fallback checks up to 11:59 PM ET or across the rest of the webpage if the main table is unavailable. If no price appears on certain dates, resolution relies on the remaining dates. The American Automobile Association (AAA) is the deciding source.
Resolution source
American Automobile Association (AAA)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·