GeopoliticsCloses · in 9 days$646.3K volumePart of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? →

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?

Gotcha risk

Medium

3 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market defines a ceasefire breach through very specific operational criteria rather than formal diplomatic declarations.

Read the full assessment

This market defines a ceasefire breach through very specific operational criteria rather than formal diplomatic declarations. Crucially, strikes only count if munitions directly impact terrestrial territory; intercepted munitions or falling debris do not trigger a negative resolution regardless of damage caused. Additionally, numerous forms of military engagement are explicitly excluded, such as ground incursions, artillery, MLRS systems, short-range loitering munitions, and naval gunfire. Resolution relies on consensus across credible media and official government or military statements from both nations, requiring subjective evaluation if reports conflict regarding attribution, interception status, or impact location.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Medium
Exceptions
High

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

90%

chance

↔ ±0 pts · 24h

Yes90¢
No10¢
November 22 · Yes · 1MO 58.5 H 91.5 L 43.0 C 89.5+31.0 (+53.0%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +13 pts24h · detected 7 Nov 2026, 14:25 UTC

The price rose from 69% to 79% alongside 3 related ceasefire timeline outcomes, including November 15, December 15, and December 31, which all moved upward in the same period.

  • Largest hourly change: 14:00 UTC, 81% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 15 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: November 15 (up), December 31 (up), December 15 (up).

The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 19:05 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Market explained

Measures whether the ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds without qualifying direct strikes through November 22, 2026, at 11:59 PM IRST. It uniquely excludes intercepted munitions, falling debris, ground/naval actions, and non-terrestrial impacts from breaking the ceasefire.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through November 22 at 11:59 PM IRST. The market resolves to No if either country initiates a qualifying military action that directly impacts the other's terrestrial territory or internal waters before that time. Qualifying actions are air strikes (bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones) or surface-to-surface missile strikes (cruise/ballistic missiles, one-way attack drones). Intercepted munitions, debris/wreckage, surface-to-air missiles, small arms, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval/artillery fire, MLRS, FPV drones, ATGMs, short-range loitering munitions, and unexecuted threats do not qualify. Determination is made by a consensus of official information from the Israeli and Iranian governments and militaries, alongside credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·