1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are clearly defined, specifying exact operational triggers such as OMB directives to execute shutdown plans or formal OPM operating status notices.
The resolution criteria are clearly defined, specifying exact operational triggers such as OMB directives to execute shutdown plans or formal OPM operating status notices. The rules distinguish between genuine shutdowns and brief technical funding lapses or weather closures, and explicitly include partial shutdowns. The deadline is fixed to December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. While official government sources like OPM and OMB are the primary references, the rules also permit resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting if necessary.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
41%
chance▼ −1.5 pts · 24h
The price rose from 40% to 51%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 04:05 UTC
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees. A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown. Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown. The following will qualify as a shutdown: - An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time - An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency") The following will not qualify as a shutdown: - A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations - Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market measures whether the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by December 31, 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns of one or more agencies qualify.
The market resolves to Yes if the US federal government enters a full or partial shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations by December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include an OMB directive to execute shutdown plans or an OPM operating status stating operations are suspended, reduced, or vary due to a funding lapse. A lapse where agencies continue normal operations, or closures caused solely by holidays or emergencies, do not count. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided using official US government information, such as OPM, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM), or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·