Government shutdown by...?

This event tracks whether the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by specific target dates. Each market corresponds to a distinct calendar deadline for a qualifying shutdown to take effect.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of a timeline ladder of specific target deadlines. Because resolving Yes on an earlier date means a shutdown has occurred before subsequent deadlines as well, more than one market can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if the U.S. federal government enters a qualifying full or partial shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include an OMB directive to execute shutdown plans or an OPM operating status stating operations are suspended, reduced, or varying by agency due to a funding lapse. A technical lapse where agencies continue normal operations, or closures solely from holidays, weather, or emergencies, do not qualify. If conditions are not met by the deadline, it resolves to No.

Key dates

• December 12 deadline: 11:59 PM ET on December 12 (year not stated)
• December 31 deadline: 11:59 PM ET on December 31 (year not stated)

Resolution source

Official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM), or a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 1 Nov 2026, 00:32 UTC