PoliticsCloses · in 29 days$52.9K volumePart of: Government shutdown by...? →

Government shutdown by December 12?

Gotcha risk

Low

1 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules provide clear, objective definitions of what constitutes a qualifying federal government shutdown, detailing specific triggering actions such as Office of Management and Budget directives or Office of Personnel Management operating status updates.

Read the full assessment

The rules provide clear, objective definitions of what constitutes a qualifying federal government shutdown, detailing specific triggering actions such as Office of Management and Budget directives or Office of Personnel Management operating status updates. Partial shutdowns count, while technical lapses without operation suspensions are explicitly excluded. The deadline is fixed at 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Resolution is anchored primarily in official government announcements, though a consensus of credible reporting is permitted as a secondary source.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

38%

chance

▲ +2.5 pts · 24h

Yes38¢
No63¢
December 12 · Yes · 1MO 31.5 H 42.0 L 23.5 C 37.5+6.0 (+19.0%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +14 pts24h · detected 7 Nov 2026, 21:40 UTC

The market rose from 28% to 42%, moving alongside related shutdown outcomes such as December 31 as the broader event repriced.

  • Largest hourly change: 21:00 UTC, 68% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 35 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: December 31 (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 21:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees. A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown. Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown. The following will qualify as a shutdown: - An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time - An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency") The following will not qualify as a shutdown: - A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations - Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether the United States federal government enters a full or partial shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations by December 12 at 11:59 PM ET.

How it resolves

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by December 12 at 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns affecting one or more agencies qualify. Qualifying evidence includes an OMB directive ordering agencies to execute shutdown plans or an official OPM status indicating operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency due to an appropriations lapse. It resolves to No if no qualifying shutdown occurs by the deadline. Technical lapses where normal operations continue, as well as closures solely caused by holidays, weather, or emergencies, do not qualify. Official information from the U.S. government, including OPM, serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM), or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·