Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the outcome depends on changes to the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the April 2027 FOMC meeting.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the outcome depends on changes to the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the April 2027 FOMC meeting. Official Federal Reserve statements and websites are designated as the direct resolution sources, leaving no room for decider discretion. Clear rounding rules cover non-standard rate adjustments, and a defined fallback resolves to 'No change' if no statement is released by the next meeting.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 50 basis points or more following its April 2027 FOMC meeting. Rate changes not matching exact standard increments are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range is increased by 50 basis points or more compared to its level prior to the April 2027 meeting. If an unlisted rate change occurs, it is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points (for example, a 12.5 bps increase counts as 25 bps). The market resolves to No if the rate is changed by less than 50 bps, left unchanged, or decreased. If no FOMC statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to "No change". Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement issued after the meeting or the Federal Reserve official website.
Resolution source
FOMC statement and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·