Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market relies on clear official sources, specifically the Federal Open Market Committee statement and the Federal Reserve's official website.
Read the full assessment
This market relies on clear official sources, specifically the Federal Open Market Committee statement and the Federal Reserve's official website. The metric is explicitly defined as the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to the pre-meeting level. A rounding rule is clearly specified for non-standard rate adjustments, rounding up to the nearest 25 basis points, and a straightforward fallback rule resolves the market to no change if no statement is released before the next scheduled meeting.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
8%
chance▲ +0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points following its April 2027 meeting. Unusually, non-standard rate changes are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range is lowered by 25 basis points compared to its level prior to the April 2027 FOMC meeting. Rate changes not matching displayed options round up to the nearest 25 basis points, meaning a 12.5 bps cut counts as 25 bps. The market resolves to No if the upper bound change is any other amount, including no change, rate hikes, or cuts of different sizes. If no FOMC statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the No change outcome. Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement or the official Federal Reserve website.
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee statement and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·