Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2027 meeting?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the outcome depends on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate following the March 2027 FOMC meeting compared to the prior level.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the outcome depends on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate following the March 2027 FOMC meeting compared to the prior level. Official Federal Reserve statements and web pages serve as the explicit resolution sources, leaving minimal room for decider discretion. The rules also define rounding conventions for non-standard rate adjustments and include a clear backstop resolving to no change if no statement is released by the next meeting.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 50 basis points or more following its March 2027 meeting.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate increases by 50 basis points or more following the March 2027 meeting compared to its level prior to the meeting. Any non-standard rate changes are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points (for example, a 12.5 bps change counts as 25 bps). The market resolves to No if the rate change is less than 50 basis points, remains unchanged, or is decreased. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the "No change" bracket. Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement released after its March 16-17, 2027 meeting or the official Federal Reserve website.
Resolution source
FOMC statement or the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·