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EconomyCloses · in 124 days$104.6K volumePart of: Fed Decision in March? →

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly define how the interest rate change will be measured using the upper bound of the target federal funds range.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly define how the interest rate change will be measured using the upper bound of the target federal funds range. Resolution relies directly on official Federal Reserve post-meeting statements with specific URLs provided. Clear rounding guidelines are included for non-standard rate adjustments, and a defined fallback resolves the market to no change if no statement is released before the subsequent meeting.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

60%

chance

▲ +1 pts · 24h

Yes60¢
No40¢
25 bps increase · Yes · 1MO 47.0 H 62.5 L 31.5 C 60.0+13.0 (+27.7%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +11 pts24h · detected 11 Nov 2026, 21:10 UTC

The contract rose from 48% to 59% as part of a broader repricing across March 2027 Fed rate meeting outcomes, while the outcome for a 50+ bps decrease moved down.

  • Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, 50% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 126 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: 50+ bps decrease (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 21:20 UTC

Earlier

▲ +20 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 15:10 UTCThe probability rose from 36% to 55% as outcomes for the meeting repriced together, with the odds of 'No change' falling at the same time.News check pending.AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 17:50 UTC

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 25 basis points following its March 2027 meeting.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate increases by 25 basis points compared to its level prior to the March 2027 FOMC meeting. Rate changes not explicitly listed are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points, meaning an increase of 12.5 basis points counts as 25 basis points. The market resolves to No if the upper bound changes by any other amount or does not change. If no FOMC statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the "No change" bracket. The deciding source is the FOMC's post-meeting statement or the official website of the Federal Reserve.

Resolution source

FOMC statement or the official website of the Federal Reserve

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·