PolymarketEvent5 live of 5 outcomes

Fed Decision in March?

5 live outcomes · highest priced: 25 bps increase at 60% (+2 pts in 24h) · first close Mar 18, 2027 · $223.4K total volume

About this event

This event tracks the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee's interest rate decision following its March 2027 meeting. Markets measure the specific change in basis points to the upper bound of the target federal funds range compared to the pre-meeting level.

How the outcomes relate

Markets represent distinct brackets of rate adjustments (increases, decreases, or no change). Exactly one outcome will resolve Yes based on the specific basis point change, making the options mutually exclusive.

How it resolves

Each market resolves according to the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate decided at the FOMC's March 2027 meeting. The market matching the actual basis point change resolves Yes, while others resolve No. If the rate change is not explicitly listed among the options, it is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points to match a bracket. If no statement is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the event resolves to 'No change'.

Key dates

  • FOMC March Meeting: — Scheduled FOMC meeting takes place March 16-17, 2027.

Resolution source

FOMC statement and the official website of the Federal Reserve

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Outcomes for Fed Decision in March?
OutcomePrice24hGotcha riskTradabilityCloses
25 bps increase60%▲ 2LowMed
No change36%▼ 1LowMed
25 bps decrease3%±0LowHigh
50+ bps increase1%±0LowHigh
50+ bps decrease<1%±0LowHigh

Highest-priced outcome

25 bps increase · 7 daysRange 33–63%