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PoliticsCloses · in 229 days$46.2K volumePart of: Next Israeli government formed by...? →

Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?

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Gotcha risk

Low

1 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The resolution criteria clearly specify that a new government must be sworn in before the Knesset following the 2026 election or a subsequent election by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.

Read the full assessment

The resolution criteria clearly specify that a new government must be sworn in before the Knesset following the 2026 election or a subsequent election by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Explicit exclusions clarify that caretaker or transitional governments do not qualify. Official announcements from the Knesset or the Israeli government serve as the primary authority, though the rules permit relying on a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary option.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

88%

chance

▼ −4.5 pts · 24h

Yes88¢
No13¢
June 30, 2027 · Yes · 1MO 65.0 H 93.0 L 64.5 C 87.5+22.5 (+34.6%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +11 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 15:40 UTC

The market price rose from 73% to 84% as part of a broader repricing across related outcomes for the next Israeli government timeline, alongside an upward move in the February 28, 2027 market.

  • Largest hourly change: 07:00 UTC, 36% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 232 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: February 28, 2027 (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 15:51 UTC

Earlier

▼ −14 pts · 9 Nov 2026, 15:40 UTCThe price dropped from 86% to 73% alongside simultaneous downward moves in related government formation timelines for December 2026 and February 2027, the likely driver of the repricing.News check pending.AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 15:50 UTC

Earlier

▲ +11 pts · 6 Nov 2026, 19:10 UTCThe market rose from 76% to 87% as related outcomes for the next Israeli government timeline repriced together, including the December 31, 2026 market also moving up.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 23:06 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe. Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether a new Israeli government resulting from the 2026 or later Knesset elections is sworn in by June 30, 2027. It excludes caretaker or transitional governments.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if a newly formed Government of Israel, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers, is officially sworn in before the Knesset by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election qualifies. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing in a caretaker capacity, do not count. The market resolves to No if no qualifying government is sworn in by the deadline. Official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset decides the outcome, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.

Resolution source

Government of Israel or the Knesset, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·