Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the conditions required for a positive resolution: a new government must be formally sworn in before the Knesset following the 2026 election or a later election prior to February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the conditions required for a positive resolution: a new government must be formally sworn in before the Knesset following the 2026 election or a later election prior to February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Caretaker and transitional arrangements are explicitly excluded. While the rules allow for a consensus of credible reporting alongside official publications from the Israeli Government or the Knesset, the swearing-in of a government is a formal, highly publicized constitutional event with minimal room for ambiguity or dispute.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
69%
chance▼ −2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe. Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether a new Israeli government resulting from the 2026 election or a later election is sworn in by February 28, 2027. Notably, caretaker or transitional governments do not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a newly formed Government of Israel—headed by a Prime Minister, composed of appointed ministers, and formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election—is officially sworn in before the Knesset by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government serving in a caretaker capacity, do not count. The market resolves to No if this condition is not met by the deadline. The outcome is determined using official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·