Next Israeli government formed by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: June 30, 2027 at 88% (−5 pts in 24h) · first close Jul 1, 2027 · $260.3K total volume
About this event
This event tracks when the next Israeli government will be officially established. Markets measure whether a qualifying new government is sworn in before the Knesset on or before various target cutoff dates.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of a timeline of individual cutoff dates. If a new government is sworn in by an earlier deadline, that market and all subsequent deadline markets will resolve Yes. If it is formed later, earlier markets will resolve No while later markets resolve Yes. Thus, multiple markets can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if a newly formed Government of Israel—headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers—is officially sworn in before the Knesset by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Only governments formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election qualify; caretaker or transitional governments do not count. Resolution is determined by official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- November 30, 2026 deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
- December 31, 2026 deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
- February 28, 2027 deadline:
- June 30, 2027 deadline:
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 88% | ▼ 5 | Low | Med | |
| November 30, 2026 | 8% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| February 28, 2027 | 69% | ▼ 3 | Low | Low | |
| December 31, 2026 | 42% | ▲ 1 | Med | Low | |
| December 15, 2026 | — | — | Not rated | — |