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PoliticsCloses · in 229 days$25.3K volumePart of: Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? →

Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?

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Gotcha risk

Low

1 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules provide clear, comprehensive definitions of what constitutes an arrest or detention, explicitly itemizing inclusions such as house arrest or voluntary surrender under warrant, and exclusions such as unexecuted warrants or mere questioning.

Read the full assessment

The rules provide clear, comprehensive definitions of what constitutes an arrest or detention, explicitly itemizing inclusions such as house arrest or voluntary surrender under warrant, and exclusions such as unexecuted warrants or mere questioning. Resolution relies primarily on official government or law enforcement documentation, with a consensus of credible reporting available as a secondary reference. The deadline is exact with an explicit time zone, leaving minimal ambiguity regarding qualifying events or timing.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

44%

chance

↔ ±0 pts · 24h

Yes44¢
No56¢
June 30, 2027 · Yes · 1MO 48.5 H 59.0 L 24.5 C 43.5−5.0 (−10.3%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +11 pts24h · detected 9 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTC

The price rose from 34% to 44% alongside a related market for an arrest by December 31, 2026, which also moved up as outcomes for the event repriced together.

  • Largest hourly change: 09:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 233 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: December 31, 2026 (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 22:50 UTC

Earlier

▲ +11 pts · 9 Nov 2026, 18:25 UTCThe market rose from 34% to 45%, moving alongside a related contract for an arrest by December 31, 2026, which served as the likely driver.News check pending.AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 18:35 UTC

Earlier

▲ +26 pts · 9 Nov 2026, 09:55 UTCThe market price rose from 34% to 59%, moving alongside the related market for December 31, 2026, which also saw an upward move.News check pending.AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 10:05 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement on or before June 30, 2027.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include being taken into physical custody by federal, state, local, military, or international authorities, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement or at a courthouse with an attorney in response to an arrest warrant, being booked or processed, being handcuffed and taken to a police station, being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring, or temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a detention warrant decision. Unexecuted arrest warrants, questioning without arrest, and indictments without arrest do not qualify. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided using official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·