Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: June 30, 2027 at 44% · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $171.5K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement on or before specific deadline dates. Each market measures whether a qualifying arrest or detention occurs by a given date.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as a series of timeline targets with different deadline dates. Because an arrest occurring before an earlier deadline also occurs before later deadlines, multiple markets can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date; otherwise, it resolves to No. Qualifying actions include physical custody by law enforcement, voluntary surrender under a warrant, booking, handcuffing and transport to a police station, or house arrest/electronic monitoring. Holding during warrant decisions counts, whereas unexecuted warrants, questioning without arrest, or indictments alone do not qualify.
Key dates
- December 31, 2026 deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET
- June 30, 2027 deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 44% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| December 31, 2026 | 10% | ▼ 1 | Low | Med |