brierpoınt
PoliticsCloses · in 48 days$146.1K volumePart of: Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? →

Viktor Orbán arrested by...?

Trade on Polymarket ↗Referral link

Gotcha risk

Low

1 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes an arrest or detention, explicitly detailing qualifying actions such as physical custody, voluntary surrender, formal booking, and house arrest, while clearly excluding unexecuted warrants or mere questioning.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly define what constitutes an arrest or detention, explicitly detailing qualifying actions such as physical custody, voluntary surrender, formal booking, and house arrest, while clearly excluding unexecuted warrants or mere questioning. Resolution relies primarily on official government or law enforcement statements, though fallback to a consensus of credible reporting introduces some minor discretion if official records are delayed or ambiguous.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

10%

chance

▼ −0.6 pts · 24h

Yes10¢
No90¢
December 31, 2026 · Yes · 1MO 14.8 H 21.4 L 7.1 C 10.1−4.7 (−31.5%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +11 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 14:55 UTC

The market price rose from 7% to 18%, moving alongside a related outcome for June 30, 2027, which also rose. This correlated repricing across related markets is the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 09:00 UTC, 23% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 51 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: June 30, 2027 (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 15:05 UTC

Earlier

▲ +12 pts · 9 Nov 2026, 11:40 UTCThe market rose from 11% to 23% alongside related outcomes repricing together, including June 30, 2027 which also moved up, the likely driver of the change.News check pending.AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 11:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules history

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement on or before the specified date.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include physical custody by federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement, voluntary surrender for an arrest warrant, formal booking or processing, being handcuffed and taken to a police station, surrendering with an attorney, being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring, or being temporarily held awaiting a judge's decision on a detention warrant. The market resolves to No if an arrest or detention does not occur by the deadline. Unexecuted arrest warrants, questioning without arrest, and indictments without arrest do not qualify. Resolution is determined using official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·