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PoliticsCloses · in 413 days$23.2K volumePart of: Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027? →

Will none of these people be impeached by December 31, 2027?

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Gotcha risk

Low

1 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly specify what constitutes impeachment for resolution purposes: the passage of articles of impeachment by the US House of Representatives within the stated timeframe, without requiring Senate trial or conviction.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly specify what constitutes impeachment for resolution purposes: the passage of articles of impeachment by the US House of Representatives within the stated timeframe, without requiring Senate trial or conviction. A clear tie-breaker based on alphabetical order of last names is included if multiple listed individuals are impeached simultaneously. While the resolution sources allow for a consensus of credible reporting alongside official US government information, congressional impeachment votes are public official proceedings with minimal factual ambiguity.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

27%

chance

▼ −2.5 pts · 24h

Yes27¢
No73¢
Nobody · Yes · 1MO 7.0 H 33.5 L 5.5 C 27.0+20.0 (+285.7%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +21 pts24h · detected 11 Nov 2026, 00:40 UTC

The price rose from 7% to 28% alongside related outcomes repricing in the same event, including a drop in the probability of Pete Hegseth being impeached as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, 41% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 416 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Pete Hegseth (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 03:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to which of the listed individuals is the first to be the subject of articles of impeachment passed by the United States House of Representatives between market creation and December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Articles of impeachment passed against any individual not listed in this market will not be considered. In the event that articles of impeachment are passed against multiple listed individuals simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of the listed individual, among those with articles of impeachment passed against them, whose last name is first in alphabetical order. In the event that none of the listed individuals is impeached by the United States House of Representatives by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Nobody". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether none of the listed individuals have articles of impeachment passed against them by the US House of Representatives by December 31, 2027.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Nobody (Yes) if the United States House of Representatives does not pass articles of impeachment against any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to a specific individual (No for Nobody) based on who is the first listed person to have articles of impeachment passed against them within the timeframe. If multiple listed individuals are impeached simultaneously, the market resolves to the person whose last name comes first alphabetically. Articles passed against unlisted individuals are disregarded, and neither Senate trial, conviction, nor removal is required. Information from the US federal government or a consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.

Resolution source

Information from the federal government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·