2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify what constitutes impeachment, defining it as the passage of articles of impeachment by the US House of Representatives regardless of Senate trial or removal.
The rules clearly specify what constitutes impeachment, defining it as the passage of articles of impeachment by the US House of Representatives regardless of Senate trial or removal. However, participants should be aware of specific exceptional mechanics: if multiple listed individuals have articles passed against them simultaneously, resolution defaults strictly to alphabetical order by last name. Additionally, the full list of competing individuals is not enumerated within the rule text itself, meaning resolution depends on an external list of options. Resolution relies primarily on US federal government records, backed by a consensus of credible reporting if necessary.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
46%
chance▼ −9 pts · 24h
The price rose from 44% to 55%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 12:21 UTC
This market will resolve according to which of the listed individuals is the first to be the subject of articles of impeachment passed by the United States House of Representatives between market creation and December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Articles of impeachment passed against any individual not listed in this market will not be considered. In the event that articles of impeachment are passed against multiple listed individuals simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of the listed individual, among those with articles of impeachment passed against them, whose last name is first in alphabetical order. In the event that none of the listed individuals is impeached by the United States House of Representatives by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Nobody". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market measures whether Pete Hegseth will be the first among a specified list of individuals to have articles of impeachment passed against him by the U.S. House of Representatives by December 31, 2027.
The market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth is the first of the listed individuals to have articles of impeachment passed against him by the U.S. House of Representatives by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. If articles are passed against multiple listed individuals simultaneously, the market resolves to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. Neither trial nor conviction by the Senate, nor removal from office, is required. The market resolves to No if another listed individual is impeached first. It resolves to Nobody if no listed individual is impeached by the deadline. Impeachments of unlisted individuals are disregarded. Resolution is determined by U.S. federal government information or a consensus of credible reporting.
Information from the federal government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·