Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
63.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 63.5%
$1.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly specify the conditions for closing the market. Resolution relies on consensus among three explicit major news organisations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) calling the race for the same party, with a clear fallback to the individual inaugurated on January 20, 2029 if the networks do not agree. There are no ambiguous definitions or unexpected edge-case clauses.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the 2028 United States presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party's candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another political party is elected. The primary deciding sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, and the market resolves once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources have not called the race for the same party by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 United States presidential election is held.
- Inauguration Day: — Fallback resolution deadline if all three media sources have not called the race for the same party.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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