Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Current price
34.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 34.5%
$1.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market establishes clear and objective criteria for determining the winner. Resolution occurs as soon as three named major media decision desks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—unanimously project the race for the same political party. If a consensus among all three outlets is not reached by January 20, 2029, the market falls back definitively to whichever candidate is officially inaugurated as President of the United States. The wording leaves minimal room for subjective interpretation, and the fallback mechanism prevents indefinite delays or ambiguity in contested scenarios.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party candidate wins the 2028 United States presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election. The market resolves to No if a candidate from a different political party is elected. The outcome is determined when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same party. If all three news sources have not called the race for the same party by the inauguration date of January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on the political party of the individual who is inaugurated.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2028 United States presidential election is held.
- Inauguration Date: — Fallback resolution deadline based on who is inaugurated if media consensus is not reached.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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