2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes an impeachment, specifying a simple majority vote on articles of impeachment in the US House without requiring Senate conviction.
The rules clearly define what constitutes an impeachment, specifying a simple majority vote on articles of impeachment in the US House without requiring Senate conviction. However, participants should be aware of a critical clause: if the individual permanently vacates the office before impeachment occurs, the market immediately resolves to No rather than remaining open until the deadline. While official federal government records serve as the primary source, the rules also permit resolution via a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
51%
chance▼ −8 pts · 24h
The market price dropped from 68% to 58%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 03:50 UTC
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market measures whether Pete Hegseth is impeached by the US House of Representatives by March 31, 2027. An unusual aspect is that the market immediately resolves to No if he permanently vacates his office before being impeached.
The market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment against United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth by simple majority vote between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Neither a Senate trial, conviction, nor removal from office is required. The market resolves to No if the criteria for Yes are not met by the deadline, or immediately to No if Pete Hegseth permanently vacates the specified office prior to meeting the Yes criteria. Resolution is determined using information from the US federal government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Information from the federal government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·