Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves positively if the US House passes at least one article of impeachment against Pete Hegseth before the June 30, 2027 deadline, without requiring Senate trial or removal.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves positively if the US House passes at least one article of impeachment against Pete Hegseth before the June 30, 2027 deadline, without requiring Senate trial or removal. However, participants must be aware of two key clauses: first, the rules explicitly refer to him as the 'Secretary of War' rather than Secretary of Defense, which introduces a factual discrepancy in the office title, though the individual is named. Second, there is an early-resolution clause specifying that if he permanently vacates office before impeachment occurs, the market immediately resolves to 'No'. Sources rely on official US federal government records backed by a consensus of credible reporting.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
62%
chance▼ −4 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the US House of Representatives impeaches Pete Hegseth by June 30, 2027. Notably, a Senate trial or conviction is not required, and if Hegseth permanently vacates office before being impeached, the market resolves to No immediately.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives passes one or more articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth by simple majority vote between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Neither a Senate trial, conviction, nor removal from office is necessary for a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if this threshold is not met by the deadline, or immediately if Hegseth permanently vacates the specified office prior to meeting the criteria for Yes. Resolution will be determined by information from the US federal government, with a consensus of credible reporting serving as a secondary source.
Resolution source
Information from the federal government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·