Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market hinges on whether a diplomatic engagement meets the specific threshold of a formal senior-level round of peace talks or negotiations rather than technical, preparatory, or working-group meetings, which are explicitly excluded.
Read the full assessment
This market hinges on whether a diplomatic engagement meets the specific threshold of a formal senior-level round of peace talks or negotiations rather than technical, preparatory, or working-group meetings, which are explicitly excluded. Because indirect shuttle diplomacy counts and participants do not need to be in the same room, determining whether a complex multi-party mediation qualifies requires subjective interpretation. Additionally, resolution relies on official government statements or a consensus of credible media reporting without naming a single definitive arbiter, leaving room for discretion if reporting on sensitive backchannel diplomacy is incomplete or conflicting.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani will physically attend and actively participate in a formal senior-level US-Iran peace talk round by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between authorized senior representatives of the United States and Iran before the deadline. Attendance requires physical presence and active participation for any part of a qualifying round. Qualifying meetings must be deliberate, in-person (including indirect in-person diplomacy via mediators where representatives are not in the same room), and publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by credible media consensus. Brief greetings, chance encounters, ceremonial appearances, remote meetings, and standalone technical/staff-level talks do not qualify. The market resolves to No otherwise. Official information from the individual or the governments of the US and Iran, alongside credible media consensus, determines the outcome.
Resolution source
Official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·