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GeopoliticsCloses · in 47 days$111.8K volumePart of: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? →

Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

3 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market relies on detailed definitions that introduce nuance regarding what constitutes a qualifying event.

Read the full assessment

This market relies on detailed definitions that introduce nuance regarding what constitutes a qualifying event. While the core question asks about attending a diplomatic meeting, the rules require a formal senior-level round of peace talks and explicitly permit indirect in-person diplomacy where participants are not even in the same room. However, technical, staff-level, working-group, or ceremonial meetings and brief encounters are excluded. Deciding whether an event meets the threshold of senior-level peace talks or is merely technical or preparatory requires qualitative judgment. Resolution is determined either by official statements from the governments or by a consensus of credible media reporting, leaving room for interpretation if media accounts diverge on the formal nature of the talks or the individual's active participation.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Medium
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

19%

chance

▼ −13 pts · 24h

Yes19¢
No82¢
J.D. Vance · Yes · 1MO 30.0 H 37.5 L 18.5 C 18.5−11.5 (−38.3%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −12 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 15:10 UTC

The market fell from 31% to 19% alongside parallel downward moves in related markets, including Abbas Araghchi and Steve Witkoff, which was the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 13:00 UTC, 71% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 48 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: Abbas Araghchi (down), Steve Witkoff (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 15:20 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether J.D. Vance attends a formal senior-level in-person US-Iran diplomatic meeting or peace talks round by December 31, 2026. It unusually permits indirect in-person diplomacy through mediators where representatives are not in the same room.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if J.D. Vance is physically present and actively participating in any part of a formal senior-level round of peace talks or deliberate in-person negotiating round between authorized US and Iranian representatives between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Indirect in-person diplomacy via mediators qualifies if both nations participate in the same authorized process. Remote meetings, brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, and standalone technical or staff-level talks do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying attendance occurs by the deadline. The meeting must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Official government information and credible media consensus decide resolution.

Resolution source

Official information from J.D. Vance, the governments of the United States and Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·