Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The question asks broadly about a diplomatic meeting, but the rules restrict qualifying events to formal, senior-level peace talks or negotiating rounds where the named individual is physically present and actively participating.
Read the full assessment
The question asks broadly about a diplomatic meeting, but the rules restrict qualifying events to formal, senior-level peace talks or negotiating rounds where the named individual is physically present and actively participating. While direct meetings count, indirect in-person talks via mediators also qualify without both sides needing to be in the same room. Conversely, technical, staff-level, implementation, or follow-on talks from past rounds are explicitly excluded unless part of a newly convened senior round. Resolution relies on official government statements or a consensus of credible reporting to judge whether an encounter meets these formal negotiation thresholds rather than being a brief greeting or ceremonial appearance.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf physically attends a formal, senior-level US-Iran diplomatic meeting or peace talks round by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is physically present and actively participating in any formal, senior-level in-person round of peace talks or deliberate diplomatic negotiations between authorized US and Iranian representatives between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying meetings include indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators where representatives participate in the same process, and attendance at any part of a multi-day meeting counts. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, non-diplomatic talks, remote meetings, and standalone technical or staff-level talks do not qualify. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round do not qualify by themselves. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying attendance occurs by the deadline. Resolution is decided using official information from the individual and the governments of the United States and Iran, or a consensus of credible media reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·