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GeopoliticsCloses · in 47 days$29.3K volumePart of: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? →

Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market relies heavily on qualitative definitions that require subjective interpretation.

Read the full assessment

This market relies heavily on qualitative definitions that require subjective interpretation. Determining whether an engagement constitutes a formal senior-level round rather than a working-group, technical, preparatory, or deconfliction session introduces ambiguity, especially given complex indirect diplomacy formats where parties do not share a room. Additionally, resolution does not rest on a single binding registry; it depends on official statements from either government or a consensus of credible media reporting, leaving room for interpretation if media accounts diverge on the exact nature of the talks or Araghchi's participation level.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Medium
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

31%

chance

▼ −6.5 pts · 24h

Yes31¢
No69¢
Abbas Araghchi · Yes · 1MO 32.0 H 49.0 L 28.5 C 31.0−1.0 (−3.1%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −12 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 19:55 UTC

The market fell from 49% to 38% alongside correlated repricing in related diplomatic meeting markets, including Jared Kushner moving in the same downward direction.

  • Largest hourly change: 20:00 UTC, 48% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 51 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: Jared Kushner (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 20:05 UTC

Earlier

▼ −11 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 14:40 UTCThe price fell from 48% to 37% as related outcomes for the event repriced lower at the same time, the likely driver of the move.News check pending.AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 14:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Abbas Araghchi attends a formal, senior-level US-Iran diplomatic meeting or peace talks round by December 31, 2026.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Abbas Araghchi is physically present and actively participating in any formal senior-level round of peace talks between US and Iranian representatives between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events must be deliberate in-person diplomatic meetings concerning US-Iran relations involving authorized senior representatives; indirect in-person diplomacy via mediators qualifies if part of the same formal process. Technical, staff-level, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings do not qualify unless part of a new formally convened senior round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, ceremonial appearances, and remote meetings do not qualify. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from the individual and the US and Iranian governments, or a consensus of credible media reporting.

Resolution source

Official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·