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EconomyCloses · in 74 days$118.5K volumePart of: Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) →

Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The market defines exact, unambiguous criteria for what constitutes a cut, hike, and pause based on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.

Read the full assessment

The market defines exact, unambiguous criteria for what constitutes a cut, hike, and pause based on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. Resolution relies directly on official statements published by the Federal Reserve following three specifically dated FOMC meetings. The rules explicitly state that inter-meeting emergency changes are excluded and clarify how alternative rate action sequences resolve.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

40%

chance

▼ −8 pts · 24h

Yes40¢
No60¢
Pause-Hike-Pause · Yes · 1MO 59.0 H 77.5 L 39.5 C 40.0−19.0 (−32.2%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −30 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 15:25 UTC

The price fell from 71% to 47% as part of a broader repricing across 3 related Federal Reserve decision path outcomes, including a rise in the Pause-Hike-Hike market, which was the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 13:00 UTC, 76% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 77 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: Pause-Hike-Hike (up), Pause-Pause-Hike (down), Pause-Pause-Pause (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 19:05 UTC

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Market explained

This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee will pause, hike, and then pause the upper bound of the target federal funds rate across three consecutive meetings (October, December, and January).

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC pauses rate changes in the October meeting, hikes rates in the December meeting, and pauses rate changes in the January meeting. Rate levels are determined by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to the level prior to each respective meeting. The market resolves to No if a different listed combination occurs. The market resolves to Other if the Fed executes a different combination than any listed, or if any rate cut occurs across the three meetings. Emergency rate changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are excluded. Resolution is decided using official FOMC statements and the Federal Reserve website.

Resolution source

FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·