Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before close
- 7 days before close
- Not captured
- 24 hours before close
- Not captured
- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on official announcements from the Federal Open Market Committee across three specifically dated meetings. The rules clearly define what constitutes a qualifying hike, cut, or pause by referencing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. Official Federal Reserve statements and websites are designated as the sole resolution sources, leaving no room for discretion. Notably, inter-meeting or emergency rate actions are explicitly excluded, and any non-matching sequence or rate cut triggers resolution to Other.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee will increase the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at each of its next three specified meetings (October, December, and January).
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes (or Hike-Hike-Hike) if the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at all three scheduled meetings: October 27–28, December 8–9, and January 26–27. A hike is defined as a new upper bound that is higher than the level prior to that meeting. The market resolves to Other if the FOMC publishes any combination different from the listed options, or if any rate cut occurs across the three meetings. Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings are excluded from consideration. The deciding source is the FOMC's post-meeting statement and the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- First FOMC meeting: — Meeting scheduled October 27 to 28
- Second FOMC meeting: — Meeting scheduled December 8 to 9
- Third FOMC meeting: — Meeting scheduled January 26 to 27
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements and the Federal Reserve website
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.