brierpoınt
EconomyCloses · in 74 days$19.4K volumePart of: Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) →

Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?

Trade on Polymarket ↗Referral link

Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market clearly defines what constitutes a pause, hike, and cut based strictly on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate across three specific scheduled FOMC meeting dates.

Read the full assessment

This market clearly defines what constitutes a pause, hike, and cut based strictly on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate across three specific scheduled FOMC meeting dates. Official Federal Reserve statements and data pages are designated as the resolution sources, leaving no room for discretionary interpretation. It also explicitly clarifies that unscheduled emergency rate adjustments outside of these specified regular meetings do not count toward resolution.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

3%

chance

▼ −0.05 pts · 24h

Yes3¢
No97¢
Pause-Pause-Hike · Yes · 1MO 13.3 H 38.6 L 0.7 C 3.5−9.9 (−74.1%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −10 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 11:55 UTC

The probability fell from 14% to 4% as part of a broader repricing across related Fed rate path outcomes, with two related markets moving alongside it.

  • Largest hourly change: 16:00 UTC, 62% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 78 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: Pause-Hike-Pause (up), Pause-Hike-Hike (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Market explained

This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee executes a sequence of Pause, Pause, and Hike across its specified October, December, and January interest rate decisions.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC leaves the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged in October, leaves it unchanged in December, and raises it in January. The market resolves to No if the FOMC produces a different predefined listed sequence. The market resolves to Other if the FOMC executes any sequence not explicitly listed, including any sequence containing a rate cut. Emergency rate changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are not considered. Resolution is decided using FOMC post-meeting statements and the Federal Reserve website.

Resolution source

FOMC post-meeting statements and the official Federal Reserve website

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·