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EconomyCloses · in 74 days$46.3K volumePart of: Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) →

Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The market rules clearly define what constitutes a hike, pause, or cut using the official upper bound of the target federal funds rate across three specific scheduled FOMC meetings.

Read the full assessment

The market rules clearly define what constitutes a hike, pause, or cut using the official upper bound of the target federal funds rate across three specific scheduled FOMC meetings. Official Federal Reserve statements and websites are designated as the direct resolution sources, leaving no room for subjective interpretation or decider discretion. Emergency rate moves outside scheduled meetings are explicitly excluded, and any non-matching combination or rate cut resolves to Other.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

57%

chance

▲ +9 pts · 24h

Yes57¢
No43¢
Pause-Hike-Hike · Yes · 1MO 18.5 H 57.1 L 3.0 C 57.1+38.6 (+208.6%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +41 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 13:40 UTC

The price rose from 7% to 47% alongside repricing across 3 related Fed rate path outcomes, including drops in Pause-Hike-Pause, Pause-Pause-Hike, and Pause-Pause-Pause, which served as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 13:00 UTC, 40% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 77 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Pause-Hike-Pause (down), Pause-Pause-Hike (down), Pause-Pause-Pause (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 17:05 UTC

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Market explained

This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee will pause, hike, and hike the upper bound of the target federal funds rate across its next three scheduled meetings (October, December, and January).

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC pauses the upper bound of the target rate at the October meeting, hikes it at the December meeting, and hikes it at the January meeting. It resolves to Other if the Fed publishes any different combination across the three meetings, or if any rate cut occurs. Emergency rate changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are not considered. Resolution is decided using the FOMC statement after its meetings and the official Federal Reserve website.

Resolution source

FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·