US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on evaluating whether statements from both the United States and Iran qualify as an official diplomatic agreement specifically committing Iran to permit, restore, or increase traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Because diplomatic engagements often involve informal arrangements, tacit understandings, or unilateral gestures, the decider must interpret whether communications meet the threshold of an official deal. If the nature of the announcements is ambiguous, the rules enforce a 14-day waiting period beyond the announcement date to seek confirmation through subsequent statements or a consensus of credible reporting, with the final outcome resting on the decider's evaluation of the totality of available information rather than a single binding official source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the United States and Iran announce a diplomatic agreement regarding vessel or shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by September 30.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if both the United States and Iran announce their acceptance of a qualifying diplomatic agreement by September 30 at 11:59 PM ET. The agreement must establish Iranian commitments to permit, restore, or increase vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Declarative statements confirming acceptance are required, while references to ongoing talks or mere expressions of support do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying agreement is announced by the deadline. If announcements are made but remain ambiguous, resolution may be delayed up to 14 calendar days to evaluate additional statements or reporting. Resolution is determined using official information from the US and Iranian governments alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: September 30 at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.