Trump meets with Putin by November 30?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official record or specific named authority, requiring subjective judgment to determine what reports qualify.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official record or specific named authority, requiring subjective judgment to determine what reports qualify. While the rules distinguish between direct interactions like handshakes or conversations and mere proximity or eye contact, edge cases involving brief encounters at larger multinational gatherings could still generate dispute over whether a sufficient personal exchange occurred before the November 30, 11:59 PM ET deadline.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
95%
chance▲ +1.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Vladimir Putin between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Trump and Putin are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump meets in person with Vladimir Putin by November 30. Resolution requires direct personal interaction, not merely presence in the same room or shared proximity.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump meets with Vladimir Putin between market creation and November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be present and interact in person, which includes exchanging words, shaking hands, having a direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or attending the same event without direct interaction does not qualify. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·