Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?
Current price
23.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 23.5%
$140.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria closely match the market question. The market clearly triggers on an announcement from Anthropic's official representatives or channels that the company has filed or plans to file for bankruptcy, even if the filing itself has not yet materialized. While the rules allow resolution via a definitive consensus of credible reporting rather than solely relying on an official court docket or primary filing, the event is clear and the December 31, 2029 deadline is precisely defined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic will announce bankruptcy or announce that it has filed for bankruptcy by December 31, 2029. An official announcement alone is sufficient to trigger a positive resolution, regardless of whether or when an actual bankruptcy filing takes place.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic announces by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety. The announcement qualifies if it is made through official or verified channels, or as a recorded or written statement by its CEO, legal representation, or other official representative individual or team. A definitive consensus of credible reporting also counts. An announcement suffices regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. Otherwise, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Announcement must occur by 11:59 PM ET on this date
Resolution source
Official or verified channels of Anthropic, statements by its CEO, legal representation, official representatives, or a definitive consensus of credible reporting
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