Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
Current price
9.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9.5%
$1.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria closely mirror the question, requiring an official announcement or statement from company leadership, legal counsel, or verified channels by a clear deadline of December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market clarifies that an announcement alone triggers resolution even before a formal court filing takes place. The only potential flexibility comes from allowing a consensus of credible reporting as a resolution source alongside official company communications.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic will announce that it has filed or will file for bankruptcy by December 31, 2027. An announcement itself satisfies the condition regardless of whether an actual filing takes place.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic announces by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety. An announcement is sufficient for Yes even if the actual filing does not occur or happens later. The statement must come via Anthropic's official or verified channels, or as a recorded or written statement from its CEO, legal representation, or another official representative. A definitive consensus of credible reporting also suffices. Otherwise, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The bankruptcy announcement must occur by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Anthropic's official or verified channels, statements from its CEO, legal representation, or official representatives, or a definitive consensus of credible reporting.
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