Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?
Current price
17.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 17.5%
$176K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution conditions align closely with the question title. A positive resolution requires an announcement that Anthropic will file or has filed for bankruptcy by December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, regardless of whether a formal filing actually takes place. Statements from official channels, company executives, legal representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting are acceptable resolution bases. Relying partly on credible reporting consensus leaves minor room for discretion, but the overall criteria are straightforward.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic will announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028. Notably, an official announcement or definitive reporting suffices for resolution, regardless of whether a formal filing actually takes place.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic announces that it has filed or will file for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement qualifies if it is released via official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by Anthropic's CEO, legal representation, or an authorized representative, or through a definitive consensus of credible reporting. The market resolves to No if no such announcement occurs by the deadline.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Announcement must occur by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official or verified channels of Anthropic, statements from official representatives, or a definitive consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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