Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026?
Last captured price
22.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 22.5%
$57.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise and objective resolution criteria tied directly to a single, named source. Resolution depends entirely on the high price of any one-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT pair meeting or exceeding $100,000 before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves immediately once that condition is met or resolves to No after the deadline. There is no discretion left to the resolver, and the exclusion of other exchanges or pairs is explicitly documented.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $100,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches $100,000 by the end of 2026. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle data from Binance's BTC/USDT trading pair, disregarding data from other exchanges or pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT records a final High price equal to or greater than $100,000 between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if the price threshold is not met by that deadline. Binance serves as the sole resolution source using its 1-minute chart for the BTC/USDT pair. Prices from other exchanges, alternative pairs, or other spot markets are disregarded.
Key dates
- Market deadline: — 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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