Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution rules are exceptionally precise and objective. The market specifies a single designated exchange and trading pair (Binance BTC/USDT), an exact timeframe metric (1-minute candle final high price), an explicit cutoff timestamp (11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026), and clear early resolution criteria upon reaching or exceeding $100,000. It explicitly clarifies that prices from alternative exchanges or trading pairs will not be considered, leaving virtually no room for decider discretion or misinterpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches or exceeds a price of $100,000 before the end of September 30, 2026. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle high prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance, disregarding other exchanges or pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT on Binance shows a final High price equal to or greater than $100,000 between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution depends exclusively on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data; prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets do not count. The deciding source is Binance.
Key dates
- End date: — Market coverage concludes at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $100,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.