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PoliticsCloses · in 15 days$22.7K volumePart of: Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner →

Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the official outcome of the scheduled November 28, 2026 Hsinchu County Magistrate election.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the official outcome of the scheduled November 28, 2026 Hsinchu County Magistrate election. While reporting consensus is referenced, an official backstop is explicitly named in the Taiwanese Central Election Commission. Clear boundaries exclude temporary or interim appointees, and a long-stop date of June 30, 2027 resolves to Other if an election outcome cannot be determined in time, leaving little room for subjective interpretation.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

70%

chance

▲ +8 pts · 24h

Yes70¢
No30¢
Cheng Chao-fang · Yes · 1MO 73.5 H 75.0 L 58.0 C 70.0−3.5 (−4.8%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −14 pts24h · detected 6 Nov 2026, 14:40 UTC

The market fell from 74% to 60% alongside related outcomes repricing, with Hsu Hsin-ying moving up as a likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 14:00 UTC, 83% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 22 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Hsu Hsin-ying (up).

The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 19:05 UTC

Resolution rules

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Market explained

This market measures whether Cheng Chao-fang will win the next election to become the Magistrate of Hsinchu County. It resolves based on election results rather than temporary or interim appointments.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Cheng Chao-fang becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of the scheduled election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed prior to the election do not qualify. The market resolves to No if a different candidate becomes Magistrate. The market resolves to Other if no candidate has been elected or the result remains unknown by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved solely by official results from Taiwan's Central Election Commission.

Resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting, or the Central Election Commission (Taiwanese government)

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·