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PoliticsCloses · in 15 days$23.9K volumePart of: Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner →

Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly define the resolution event as the winner of the scheduled November 28, 2026 Taiwanese local election for Hsinchu County Magistrate.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly define the resolution event as the winner of the scheduled November 28, 2026 Taiwanese local election for Hsinchu County Magistrate. An explicit fallback and tie-breaker hierarchy points directly to official government results from the Central Election Commission (CEC) website, minimizing decider judgment. There is an ample timeout cushion extending to June 30, 2027, resolving to 'Other' if no election outcome is finalized. Interim or placeholder appointments made before the election are explicitly excluded.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

27%

chance

▼ −10.5 pts · 24h

Yes27¢
No74¢
Hsu Hsin-ying · Yes · 1MO 40.5 H 44.5 L 23.0 C 26.5−14.0 (−34.6%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +13 pts24h · detected 6 Nov 2026, 14:40 UTC

The price rose from 25% to 38% alongside a corresponding decline in Cheng Chao-fang's odds, as the election's related candidate markets repriced together.

  • Largest hourly change: 14:00 UTC, 76% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 22 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Cheng Chao-fang (down).

The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 19:05 UTC

Resolution rules

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Market explained

This market measures whether Hsu Hsin-ying will win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election scheduled for November 28, 2026.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Hsu Hsin-ying becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of the election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed prior to the election do not count. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Central Election Commission if ambiguity exists.

Resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting, or the Taiwanese Central Election Commission if ambiguous

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·