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PoliticsCloses · in 15 days$96.9K volumePart of: Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner →

Will Lai Jui-lung win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market resolves clearly based on whether Lai Jui-lung becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung following the scheduled November 2026 local elections.

Read the full assessment

This market resolves clearly based on whether Lai Jui-lung becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung following the scheduled November 2026 local elections. The rules specify that interim or placeholder appointments prior to the election do not count. While initial resolution relies on credible reporting consensus, any potential ambiguity or dispute is tied directly to the official Central Election Commission results database. A generous longstop date of June 30, 2027 handles potential delays by resolving to Other if no winner is determined.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

87%

chance

▼ −2.5 pts · 24h

Yes87¢
No13¢
Lai Jui-lung · Yes · 1MO 81.0 H 92.0 L 81.0 C 87.0+6.0 (+7.4%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +11 pts24h · detected 6 Nov 2026, 13:40 UTC

The market price rose from 83% to 92%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.

  • Largest hourly change: 13:00 UTC, 38% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 22 days after the move hour.

The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 18:05 UTC

Resolution rules

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Market explained

This market measures whether Lai Jui-lung becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung as a result of the Taiwanese local election scheduled for November 28, 2026.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Lai Jui-lung becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung as a result of the November 28, 2026 election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election are excluded. The market resolves to No if another candidate becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung as a result of this election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission if ambiguity arises.

Resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting, or the Taiwanese Central Election Commission if ambiguity arises

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·