Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on which candidate wins the Kaohsiung mayoral seat in the November 2026 Taiwanese local elections, explicitly excluding any interim appointments prior to the election.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on which candidate wins the Kaohsiung mayoral seat in the November 2026 Taiwanese local elections, explicitly excluding any interim appointments prior to the election. Outcomes will be decided primarily via a consensus of credible media reporting, backed by the official election results published by Taiwan's Central Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. A generous resolution cutoff of June 30, 2027, prevents premature closure in case of certification delays or election disputes.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
13%
chance▲ +2.9 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Ko Chih-en will win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election scheduled for November 28, 2026. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election do not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Ko Chih-en becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung as a result of the November 28, 2026 election, excluding any temporary, interim, or placeholder appointments made before the election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Central Election Commission (Taiwanese government) used in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·