Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The question asks broadly about attending a diplomatic meeting, but the rules contain detailed inclusions and exclusions that narrow what qualifies.
Read the full assessment
The question asks broadly about attending a diplomatic meeting, but the rules contain detailed inclusions and exclusions that narrow what qualifies. Indirect proximity diplomacy through mediators counts even if US and Iranian representatives are never in the same room, while technical, staff-level, preparatory, and follow-on talks from the June 22 Switzerland round are explicitly excluded. Deciding whether an event meets the criteria for a formal senior-level round and whether the listed individual was actively participating involves subjective judgment. Resolution relies primarily on official statements from the governments or the individual, but allows a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source without defining specific news outlets.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ishaq Dar physically attends and actively participates in a formal, senior-level US-Iran diplomatic round by December 31, 2026. Uniquely, indirect in-person diplomacy mediated without both delegations in the same room qualifies, while purely technical or ceremonial encounters are excluded.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ishaq Dar physically attends and actively participates in any formal senior-level round of peace talks between official US and Iran representatives between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include direct or indirect in-person diplomacy authorized by both governments, even across multi-day sessions where Dar attends only part. Standalone technical talks, staff-level meetings, brief greetings, photo opportunities, and remote calls do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Official government statements or a consensus of credible media reporting determine resolution.
Resolution source
Official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran, or a consensus of credible media reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·