Will Esmail Qaani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market hinges on whether a military official attends a formal senior-level diplomatic negotiation between the United States and Iran before December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
This market hinges on whether a military official attends a formal senior-level diplomatic negotiation between the United States and Iran before December 31, 2026. Because indirect diplomacy qualifies without parties needing to be in the same room, determining whether someone was physically present and actively participating in an authorized diplomatic capacity rather than a peripheral or technical role may require interpretation. Resolution relies on official government statements or a consensus of credible media reporting, which introduces decider judgment if reporting is conflicting, incomplete, or describes closed-door shuttle diplomacy. Additionally, specific carve-outs exclude technical follow-up talks, working groups, and deconfliction meetings unless they are part of a newly convened senior-level peace round.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Esmail Qaani physically attends and actively participates in a formal senior-level US-Iran diplomatic negotiating round by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Esmail Qaani is physically present and actively participates in any part of a formal senior-level round of peace talks between authorized US and Iranian representatives between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include direct or indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, but exclude remote meetings, brief greetings, chance encounters, ceremonial appearances, and standalone technical or staff-level talks. The meeting must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. The market resolves to No if no qualifying attendance occurs by the deadline. The resolution is decided using official information from the individual and the US and Iranian governments, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·