Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market contains detailed conditions defining what constitutes a qualifying diplomatic meeting.
Read the full assessment
This market contains detailed conditions defining what constitutes a qualifying diplomatic meeting. Resolution allows for indirect in-person diplomacy through intermediaries where the parties are not in the same room, while excluding staff-level or technical talks unless part of a newly convened senior-level peace round. Evaluating whether an engagement meets the threshold of a formal senior-level negotiating round versus an excluded preparatory or technical session involves subjective interpretation. Resolution relies on official government statements or a consensus of credible news reporting, leaving room for judgment if diplomatic interactions are shrouded in secrecy or reported with conflicting details.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ahmad Vahidi physically attends and participates in a formal senior-level diplomatic meeting or peace talks between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ahmad Vahidi physically attends and actively participates in any part of a formal senior-level round of peace talks between authorized senior representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying meetings must be deliberate in-person rounds (including indirect in-person diplomacy via mediators) publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by credible media. Brief encounters, photo ops, remote talks, technical/staff-level meetings, and standalone follow-on talks from the June 22 Switzerland round do not qualify. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided using official statements from the individual or the US and Iranian governments, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·